Equinox

And I don’t mean the Chevy.  Really there isn’t much significance to the equinox other than geographical interest.  It is a consequence of Earth’s axial tilt – called precession.  That link is a neat video if a  bit inaccurate though since the Earth doesn’t wobble quite like that.  Here is a more descriptive image – Right now the Earth is in the bottom most position working our way around to the right.    It is the time from which the days get shorter as the north pole moves further away from the sun.  It marks seasonal transitions which are otherwise arbitrary.  From a climate standpoint the vernal and autumnal equinoxes are static markers from which one can measure an earlier or later spring/summer and lengths of growing seasons.  Personally, I think that all Earth calendars should be synced to it, but I’ll get back into that in December.

I always think of the equinox as being the planet in profile.  It is like a perfectly side on view.  There’s something dignified about it.

Interestingly, Saturn just had its equinox as well – which only happens about every 15 years.  Prime desktop background material there for the astrogeeks.

Department of Inferior

In a recent Rolling Stone article the new Secretary of the Interior – Ken Salazar – is interviewed and reveals just some of the abnegation of the department’s responsibility during the Bush administration.

Wait.  Rolling Stone? Not even NY Times appears to have delved into these shenanigans.  They appear to have stopped at the glossing-over level (here and here).

Many of us recall last year’s media hoopla over the scandalous partying and sex antics of the DOI’s Minerals Managment Service.  Even then all of the stories seemed wholly focused on the nature of the scandal – sexual – rather than the effect of it.  Now Rolling Stone, of all news sources, has details on some of those realities and has given an insight into Salazar’s efforts to undo the damage.

And the damage is amazing.

Collections of unpaid royalties from oil and gas companies plunged from $300 million a year to less than $50 million…  it was to provide what the Bush administration euphemistically called “royalty relief” to big energy firms.

MMS not only slashed audits by 22 percent, it even prohibited auditors from recouping money in cases involving clear evidence of fraud.

…the Bush administration fought to let oil companies keep the money, and a judge appointed by Bush recently overturned royalty collections on 75 percent of all oil produced in the Gulf. Should the ruling stand, taxpayers will forfeit as much as $53 billion owed by Big Oil.

Between 2001 and 2007, government figures show, Interior leased five percent of its entire holdings to energy firms for development.

So in essence, under Bush, drilling on PUBLIC LAND increased while royalty payment from oil companies decreased.  To be clear, this is land owned by all of us, that via elected officials we allowed oil companies to use.  Bush’s administration decided the taxpayers’ compensation for this was far less important than appeasing oil firms via his utterly despicable royalty relief initiative.

The Rolling Stone article points out two national parks, which I’ve been to and enjoyed immensely, that have been jeopardized.

The marquee attraction at Dinosaur National Monument — a rock face of exposed Jurassic fossils — remains off-limits because the visitor center is unsafe…

Because of the lack of funds, the government was unable to buy land surrounding Valley Forge and Zion National Park, putting the property at risk for “detrimental development.”

I realize that ‘potential risk’ is not the same as actual damage, however Zion National Park houses one of the most amazing slot canyons in the world.  Any sort of development in the surrounding watershed could have disastrous effects on the canyon.  Potentially increasing the land’s flashiness increasing the danger of flash floods, and, not to sound too alarmist, increasing the likelihood of human casualty.

On the wildlife front,the Bush administration truly dropped the ball.  In what is one of the most shocking displays of neglectful environmental stewardship:

the administration’s failure to create a grazing plan at Yellowstone Park to accommodate the plains buffalo — the animal that graces the Interior Department’s seal — contributed to the deaths of more than 1,100 bison last year. It was the greatest buffalo slaughter since the species was driven to near extinction by hunters in the late 1800s.

Speaking of extinction, the D.O.I. had its way with every conservative’s favorite law – the Endangered Species Act.  This is were Salazar’s interests start to get a little murky.  The notorious Julie MacDonald (deputy assistant secretary) ignored and overruled biologists ignoring science in favor of what can only be political motivation.

Federal judges overturned several of her decisions as “arbitrary and capricious,” and among federal scientists her name became synonymous with political interference.

When the inspector general reviewed 20 listings for endangered species in which MacDonald played a role, he found that she had “potentially jeopardized” 13 of them — a track record that “cast doubt on nearly every [endangered species] decision issued during her tenure.” Her decisions frequently benefited private interests, including her own: Her ruling that the Sacramento splittail fish is not an endangered species protected her family farm in California — an operation that clears as much as $1 million a year.

It is as if the GOP ethos of minimal regulation had been adopted as worst possible management. What this has to do with Salazar is that he has pushed to remove the Grey Wolf from the endangered species list.  He claims this is based on sound science, but if that so-called sound science came from MacDonald’s office I can’t fathom why Salazar would not look upon it with great suspicion, or even push to investigate the findings.  Environmental groups are planning a lawsuit to force the D.O.I to do just that.

This may turn out to be a manifestation of the great flaw in the E.S.A. – Which is its bright-line.  A species either is, or is not endangered and once it no longer meets the criteria it is dropped entirely.  The act makes no rules regarding the welfare of wild animals until they have been declared endangered.  It is very black-and-white and sadly once an animal is removed from the list their protections are gone as well.  It would truly be in our best interest to correct this flaw and address the prevention of endangered species rather than to only address what to do afterward.  Should the Grey Wolf be delisted, it will only be a matter of time before it is back again.

The Red River of the North

The flooding in the midwest has been all over the news. I haven’t gotten a chance to glue my eyes to the TV to get the full sensationalism of it. I’ll catch up on that tonight.

Here, I want to put together some information from a place that many seem to forget about – the USGS.  I’m calling this blog entry my little protest to the lack of investigative science coverage in the mainstream media when it comes to events like this.  News outlets consistently report on the event, but never the causes – or even the dynamics that lead to the event.  If they could take the extra fraction of a minute to go into just some of these details,  minds might be opened along with eyes.

It is one thing to see the scale in terms of footage from a helicopter. That shows you the extent of impact on human lives. This data gives you a sense of scale in terms of HOW massive the flooding is.  Keep in mind that graph is logarithmic.  It shows that the normal discharge at Fargo on today’s date is about 600cfs (Cubic Feet per Second).  This flood is at 30,000 cfs today; 50 times the norm.

The info below is from the USGS site monitoring the flood and compares the current stage levels to previous floods.

I put the historical crest data in chronological order (their rank is in parenthesis).   Note the fact that until this flood, they have ALL occurred in April.  I would suggest that this flood is a consequence of increased precipitation, the massive amount of runoff, and the lack of vegetative transpiration to take up the water.  The real concern here is the increased run-off.  This is coming from a number of sources and the increase in winter time precip is only partly to blame.  Other factors include the fact that the river flows north into Canada and much colder weather.  This is problematic when earlier springtime melt, additional runoff from increased precipitation all drain into a river that gets stopped up by ICE further downriver way up to the north.  What is concerning is that this is a growing trend and that more frequence bigger precip events have long been described as consistent with climate change.  Joe@Climate Progress sums it up.

(1) 40.66  on 03-27-2009

(6) 37.13 ft on 04/05/2006
(7) 36.69 ft on 04/14/2001
(3) 39.57 ft on 04/17/1997
(8) 35.39 ft on 04/09/1989
(9) 34.93 ft on 04/19/1979
(11) 34.41 ft on 04/02/1978
(5) 37.34 ft on 04/15/1969
(10) 34.65 ft on 04/16/1952
(2) 40.10 ft on 04/07/1897
(4) 37.80 ft on 04/11/1882

The flood frequency here is definitley increasing. Two floods in the late 19th century, and then nothing until the 1950s.  then another just over a decade later.  then two major floods in the 70’s just 2 years apart.  then one in the 80’s and one in the 90’s less than a decade apart.  And now 3 within 8 years.

I threw together this graph.  I realize it only has a half-helping of awesome, but it makes the point.  The trendline is a 3rd order polynomial.

Up up and away…

Uptick in Enviro Education

NY Times just reported that there has been a pretty big increase in enrollment of environmental science programs at universities. This makes a lot of sense as general awareness of the issues increases and the Obama administration keeps advocating rigorous environmental science themed efforts.

I know at my university the program is ever expanding, but it is still fairly small. In my own concentration in the UMD Environmental Science program – Earth Surface Systems – I am one of three, yet there are many other concentrations. What is perhaps more impressive to me is that I have noticed a very large swath of majors in many of the same classes I am taking: Journalism, Policy, Business, Government, Poli Sci. It’s good that many other programs are directing students through these courses. It makes no sense to ignore the environment in which you’re to be expected to operate. It can make or break you, and lately the level of reporting on climate change has been down right pathetic. A public inability to adequately digest the basic science behind it has lead to this media incredulity between half-wit pundits who only ever discuss sound bytes and apparently try to make up their own science to match the political talking-points, fail to make sense of it, and then claim definitely that it must not be so.

Take Geroge Will for instance. Knows nothing of the science, sites his sources inaccurately to the point of either being unable to understand it, or lying outright presumably to further a P.R. campaign against the harsh reality. He writes about climate and gets his facts all wrong, and when he gets called out by people who are actually knowledgeable about the subject it becomes some kind of censorship debate – as if anyone were telling Will he couldn’t espouse his opinion. He’s perfectly entitled to his opinion, he just doesn’t get to spout false information unsupported by evidence, nay refuted by evidence, to sell it and expect to be taken seriously on the matter. Of course there are many who don’t get that George Will is wrong, or why, and will simply echo the lack of basic science understanding. At this point there are so many blindly repeated false claims that it’s becoming too easy to spot the outright deniers – the ones operating on a belief rather than a critical thought process.

The more people OUTSIDE of science who can gain a basic understanding of the mechanisms of environmental systems the better off we’ll all be. Among many other things there must be more intimate understanding and appreciation of how we affect everything around us. It must be brought out in or culture, not just resigned to the few who choose to investigate its finer points.

UPDATE:

This guy Holman Jenkins from the WSJ just added himself to the list.

Mankind’s contribution to rising CO2 levels raises serious questions, but the tens of billions poured into climate science have, by now, added up only to a negative finding. We don’t really have the slightest idea how an increase in the atmosphere’s component of CO2 is impacting our climate, though the most plausible indication is that the impact is too small to untangle from natural variability.

Journalists actually still feel that they can spout this kind of crap without even acknowledging a shred of evidence or even a source. Or maybe they’ve learned that citing Inhofe or the Heritage Foundation actually distracts from their disinformation effort. Having just a basic understanding of how greenhouse gasses work, the Carbon cycle, and the nature of the Earth’s radiative balance will dispel anything this guy just tried to shrug off.
I am really curious about what his ‘negative finding’ is.

Hang on, in his next paragraph he just compared Obama’s red blooded Amurica’s interest in energy independence to Hitler.

Put away the “energy independence” conceit. This notion, a favorite of Tojo and Hitler, was debunked by Churchill, who reasoned that true energy security came from a diversity of suppliers, not the foolish pursuit of self-sufficiency.

I suppose it gives a little insight to this guy’s thought process. That Winston Churchill reasoned anything about energy independence debunks no aspect of it. I get the premise though – don’t put your eggs in one basket. I guess Jenkins equates energy independence with only one type of energy source. Considering he goes right on to mention biofuels (which we’ll all soon discover is totally unviable – and will likely get blamed on all the environmentalists who actually opposed it from the start), yet ignores all the real alternative energy options, natural gas, and energy efficiency I can’t help but wonder what his real motives are for keeping America reliant on purely external energy sources. But why try and reason with WSJ editorials?

Carbon Observatory Crashes on Launch

Well this really sucks.

Today a NASA satellite failed to reach orbit due to a failure of the fairing to properly separate from the rocket.

“We could not make orbit,” NASA program manager John Brunschwyler said. “Initial indications are the vehicle did not have enough [force] to reach orbit and landed just short of Antarctica in the ocean.”

The $273 million satellite, called the Orbiting Carbon Observatory, would have collected global measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth’s atmosphere to help better forecast changes in carbon-dioxide levels and their effect on the Earth’s climate.

I expect more than a little snark from the pundits and know-nothing know-it-alls. This observatory would have given much more insight into the carbon cycle, yielding knowledge of profound importance to understanding feedbacks and the natural carbon balance – as well as the most accurate measurements of CO2 levels.

Lets hope they can get funding and a replacement soon.

The Universal Recycle Bin

If you take the extreme view of environmental systems you end up with something deeply profound to both cosmology as well as philosophy.  There is an effective permanence in the universe.  The conservation of matter and energy describe how things are always changing and rearranging themselves but never truly disappearing.  For instance: the plastic housing the computer on which you’re reading this contains carbon atoms comprised of the fundamental particles born in the Big Bang.  The plastic itself may only be a few years old, but those particles comprising it are over 14billion years old.

And the same applies to ourselves.

The universe is a great cauldron of ingredients in a slow, yet violent churn.  Everything we see and experience around us has coalesced from ancient material.  Everything we see and experience around us will one day be returned to the recycle bin to be reused in some other way.

I don’t recall where I heard this, but someone once noted that “The Universe wastes nothing”.
That’s pretty amazing. Even my own wedding touched on this theme in a tangential way. At the service was read a statement compiled by me and my wife which related to the nature of the universe. That in the longest view there is nothing fair or unfair. That there is no injustice and everything happens exactly the way it is supposed to – not due to some interventionism by a benevolent/malevolent sky wizard, but the determinism of causality. Nothing is random.

But don’t take my word for it.  Listen to Neil DeGrasse Tyson say it with sufficient gravitas and give your tummy the willies.

New Year’s ecolutions

So I’ve noticed a meme floating through the tubes.  Declaring resolutions for an environmentally concious year.  I realize I’m late, especially since I celebrate my new years 10 days early, but here are my environmentally oriented goals for 2009:

1. Stop leaving my reusable grocery bags in the house. I am perpetually stopping at various groceries while I’m out and find that I’ve once again left my bags by the door.  No more.  The trend stops and from now on I will make returning those bags to my car a bona fide part of unloading the groceries.
2. Replace one of my toilets with a high efficiency high pressure low flow dual action one. I have two toilets in my house.  One of them is still the cheap one put in before the house was bought.  It needs an upgrade and when that happens it will be something like this.
3. Start building my raised beds for my vegetable garden. I love my herb gardens and I plan to expand my potted herbs into a larger garden.  I like leaving most of the herbs in pots so I can bring them in come winter (except the rosemary), but I want to have several raised beds for various vegetables.
4. Compost.  This follows from the above goal.  Much of my back yard is plant/flower garden.  Adding a vegetable garden will make composting more than worth it.
5. Install rain catchment. Again, this follows from the previous goal.  I rarely water my lawn.  It doesn’t need it, and I don’t mind some mild browning.  We get some pretty steady rainfall here anyway.  However, a vegetable garden will require some more disciplined and consistent watering, which I’ll only feel comfortable doing via rain storage.  My roof is great for this.

Considering the other tasks, goals, issues and plans that I will be dealing with this year I know I am completely fooling myself if I think I can get to those last few.  If that’s the case then I guess they’ll just roll over into next year.

Foxy Lady

So I’m driving through DC this afternoon, trying to go with the flow.  There is a delicate balance between keeping my passenger from throwing up on herself, and avoiding the natives.  Seconds after we cross the DC line into Maryland I spot a Red Fox standing on a sidewalk apparently contemplating the 6 lane road before it.  Keep in mind this is 2-o-clock in the afternoon. They’re usually twilight/nocturnal creatures.

My wife assumed at first that it might be rabid, hence its mid day urban excursion.  I doubted that – it looked quite pensive.  And for good reason.  Mid January is mating season for North American foxes, and today fits that bill.  I can only assume this fox is a male and in search of a mate.  Unfortunately the prospects of finding one at that spot are pretty slim.  Rock Creek Park is about 7 blocks behind where I saw him.  I can only hope he decided to backtrack through the side streets and neighborhoods rather than chance Connecticut Ave to reach the Country Club.   He’ll have much greater chances of finding himself a…  well, you know.

Paleoparenting

I found this comic via Digg. I think it’s great. I intend to raise my children fully aware of the fact that all things on the planet share a relationship with all other things. Environmental events are never simply all that they appear.

A Banner year…

Since this blog is in its infancy I have no archive of fantastically absurd stories. Thankfully, RealClimate.org does. They’ve posted a year in review – which in my opinion is far too short.

From their list these are my favorites:

Most puzzling finding from 2006 that has yet to be convincingly replicated:
Methane from plants

Most worn out contrarian cliche:
The “Gore Effect“. This combines the irrelevant confusion of climate with weather and the slightly manic obsession with Al Gore over the actual science. Do please grow up.

Most revealing insight into some US coal companies and year’s best self parody:
Frosty the Coalman (video available here)

I think the coal industry jingle has a fantastic irony to it.

RealClimate also notes CNN’s scientific abdication. I’ve thought about this some and come to the conclusion that it was a good thing. On the face of it, it may seem like a loss to science . However, I think the reporting was so headline based that it may have actually been doing a disservice. Other media outlets and blogs do a superior job. The loss of sensationalist science news should not be grieved for.